Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-19 1.251727 1.419633 1.597365 1.799066 2.021154 2.257768 2.528454
2025-01-26 1.032007 1.264170 1.525086 1.838333 2.202392 2.610333 3.100103
2025-02-02 0.856938 1.130645 1.456265 1.868143 2.370844 2.959892 3.697378
2025-02-09 0.705236 1.002642 1.376992 1.875063 2.511813 3.289551 4.301225
2025-02-16 0.584253 0.895195 1.309011 1.887133 2.659335 3.639532 4.959821
2025-02-23 0.467089 0.774212 1.207202 1.842721 2.729264 3.897548 5.524654
2025-03-02 0.362627 0.653238 1.088312 1.759798 2.737960 4.075150 5.998521
2025-03-09 0.298349 0.581694 1.030395 1.755461 2.853466 4.403816 6.697168
2025-03-16 0.240866 0.510042 0.961602 1.725739 2.928036 4.679774 7.341575
2025-03-23 0.208654 0.475936 0.947815 1.778958 3.130063 5.151278 8.291924
2025-03-30 0.165364 0.411802 0.873463 1.724491 3.159334 5.369248 8.887809
2025-04-06 0.135511 0.367224 0.826334 1.709100 3.247702 5.680186 9.637832
2025-04-13 0.108043 0.321981 0.772913 1.680333 3.318650 5.980687 10.410078
2025-04-20 0.092539 0.299902 0.761015 1.725437 3.518647 6.498868 11.549328
2025-04-27 0.078498 0.277472 0.744674 1.760181 3.703760 7.005523 12.700502
2025-05-04 0.065084 0.252473 0.718344 1.771921 3.848407 7.454495 13.784621
2025-05-11 0.054169 0.230809 0.695485 1.787567 4.001178 7.926305 14.930964
2025-05-18 0.042431 0.201901 0.649575 1.748306 4.045842 8.214014 15.787102
2025-05-25 0.031570 0.170620 0.590529 1.671357 4.008777 8.354066 16.400270
2025-06-01 0.025552 0.153996 0.566194 1.669159 4.119742 8.764531 17.494864
2025-06-08 0.019963 0.135898 0.533434 1.642176 4.176630 9.078366 18.435254
2025-06-15 0.017322 0.129433 0.533328 1.694535 4.404075 9.720864 19.982510
2025-06-22 0.012993 0.111733 0.494238 1.643170 4.403715 9.932390 20.769108